Holiday shopping has a way of making checkout decisions feel much more important.
A customer has found the right product, added it to the cart, and is ready to buy. Then they see the total. Suddenly, a $400 or $600 purchase feels a little harder to justify.
That is where Buy Now, Pay Later, or BNPL, can change the conversation.
For the 2026 holiday season, Practical Ecommerce predicts BNPL services will finance more than $22 billion in U.S. online holiday purchases between November 1 and December 31. That would make 2026 the first holiday season in which BNPL crosses the $22 billion mark.
So the question for merchants is not simply, "Is BNPL popular?"
Does offering it make sense for our customers, products, margins, and checkout experience?
BNPL Has Already Become a Serious Holiday Payment Option
The $22 billion forecast does not come out of nowhere.
Adobe reported that U.S. shoppers spent $20 billion through BNPL during the 2025 holiday season, up 9.8% from 2024. BNPL also crossed the $1 billion mark on Cyber Monday, reaching $1.03 billion in online spend that day.
The mobile share matters because holiday shoppers are increasingly making purchase decisions on mobile. If your store offers BNPL, the payment option needs to be visible and easy to understand on a small screen, not buried somewhere at the bottom of checkout.
The Biggest Opportunity Is Not “More Payment Options”
It is easy to think of BNPL as simply another payment method alongside credit cards, PayPal, or digital wallets.
For merchants, it can be more strategic than that.
BNPL can potentially reduce the psychological barrier around higher-ticket purchases. A shopper who hesitates at $600 may feel differently when the checkout clearly explains that the purchase can be divided into smaller payments.
That can be particularly relevant for categories such as electronics, apparel, toys, and furniture, which Adobe identified as categories where consumers were most likely to use BNPL.
If your average order value is already low, BNPL may not dramatically change purchasing behavior. But if you sell products where customers regularly pause before spending several hundred dollars, it deserves a closer look.
Before Adding BNPL, Check Your Margins
Here is the part merchants should not overlook.
BNPL is not automatically a sales-growth button.
Depending on the provider and arrangement, merchants may pay fees for offering the service. That means you need to understand what happens to your contribution margin when a BNPL transaction replaces a conventional payment.
Run the numbers before Q4. Look at:
The useful question is not, "Will BNPL increase sales?"
Will the additional sales and/or larger baskets generate enough incremental profit to justify the cost?
Your Product Mix Should Drive the Decision
BNPL makes more sense for some catalogs than others.
Stronger BNPL Fit
Premium electronics, furniture, appliances, fitness equipment, jewelry, and other higher-ticket products where installment payments may remove checkout friction.
Potentially Limited Value
Catalogs where the typical order is around $30 may gain complexity without delivering much incremental value.
This is where your broader Marketplace Management Services strategy matters too. Your customers do not experience your brand in isolation. They may discover a product on Amazon, compare it on Walmart, see it through social commerce, and eventually purchase directly from your website.
Your payment strategy should fit that broader customer journey.
Do Not Treat BNPL as a Checkout Checkbox
If you decide to offer it, think about how customers encounter it.
A BNPL option that only appears after a shopper reaches the final payment screen is easy to miss.
Instead, consider communicating financing earlier:
On product pages
"Pay in 4 available on eligible purchases."
Near the price
"From $XX per payment with eligible financing."
In cart
"Flexible payment options available."
The exact wording should follow your payment provider's disclosure requirements, but the principle is simple: let customers understand their options before they reach the moment of purchase.
That becomes even more important during Q4, when shoppers are comparing multiple stores quickly.
BNPL Can Fit Into a Bigger Channel Strategy
For brands selling across multiple marketplaces, BNPL should not be evaluated as a standalone tactic.
Think about it alongside your Amazon 3P Accelerator strategy, direct-to-consumer store, marketplace expansion, advertising, promotions, and customer retention efforts.
Your direct website may give you more control over checkout and payment options than a marketplace does. That creates an opportunity to make the direct shopping experience more compelling without relying entirely on discounts.
For a brand working with a Global Ecommerce Accelerator, this kind of decision can also be evaluated market by market. Payment preferences, financing availability, consumer expectations, and regulations vary significantly between countries, so a BNPL strategy that works well in the U.S. should not automatically be copied into every market.
A Simple Q4 BNPL Checklist
Before you switch it on, ask your team five questions:
Do customers need financing?
Look at your average order value and the products customers hesitate to purchase.
Does the math work?
Calculate fees against incremental conversion, revenue, and profit.
Is the experience mobile-friendly?
A large majority of recent BNPL holiday spending happened on smartphones.
Is the messaging clear?
Customers should understand payment amounts, timing, eligibility, and any applicable costs.
Can you measure the impact?
Track conversion rate, AOV, revenue, margin, refunds, and repeat purchases separately for BNPL transactions.
If the answers line up, BNPL could be more than a trendy payment button. It can become another tool for reducing checkout friction when holiday budgets are under pressure.
And with U.S. holiday BNPL spending projected to move beyond $22 billion in 2026, it is probably worth running the numbers before the holiday rush arrives rather than deciding when your checkout traffic is already at its peak.